Tomorrow sees the release of Ivan Reitman‘s “,” a sports drama starring Kevin Costner and Jennifer Garner. There aren’t many reasons that it’s particularly notable, other than being a late-period Ivan Reitman movie that doesn’t have terrible reviews (merely middling ones). However, its claim to fame is that it’s one of only a handful of produced movies to have topped the famous Black List when it was in screenplay form. Founded in 2005 by Franklin Leonard, then an executive at Leonardo DiCaprio‘s Appian Way production company, the Black List set out to showcase the best unmade scripts in Hollywood, surveying development executives (now up to a pool of 500) on the best thing they’d read in the previous year. The organization has grown (now providing a script-reading service rated as one of the best and fairest in the business), and the December release of the list remains an event in the Hollywood calendar, and can make a career overnight.

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The list has showcased Oscar-winners and blockbuster hits, but of the nine scripts that have actually topped the list, four remain unproduced: Western “ The Brigands Of Rattleborge” which Park Chan-Wook is attached to; Jim Henson biopic “ The Muppet Man“; GOP higher education comedy/drama “ College Republicans,” which the “ Kill Your Darlings” team are making; and last year’s winner “ Holland/Michigan,” which Errol Morris will shoot later in the year), while Benedict Cumberbatch starrer “ The Imitation Game” is due for release later this year. Of the four that have been made, they haven’t led to immediate success—HBO drama “ Recount” was widely praised, but Susanne Bier’s “ Things We Lost In The Fire” was underseen and Jodie Foster‘s “ The Beaver” was marred by the bad press surrounding Mel Gibson. We’ll see how “Draft Day” goes down in the coming days, but we thought we’d use its release to examine the track record of the Black List, by picking out the ten best and ten worst movies based on scripts that have been featured on the esteemed list. From the results, it seems clearer than ever that William Goldman‘s maxim of “nobody knows anything” still applies: scripts near the top have been made into terrible movies, and those in the lower reaches have proven to be among the best (it should also be pointed out that a good script is only the start: as we’ll see, the blueprints can be departed from in ways that prove ultimately disastrous). The Black List has done a lot of good over the years, but it’s a reminder of the difficulties of the Hollywood development process that its hit-rate remains, even when you exclude many of the unmade scripts (some of which are featured here), around the 50% mark at best in terms of films that turn out halfway decent.

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You can take a look at our lists below (we did excluded films that only had one mention on the Black List), and weigh in for yourself in the comments section. The Best: 10. “Margin Call” by J.C.

Chandor (2011) Black List Appearance: “ Margin Call” placed seventh on the 2010 Black List with 31 mentions—one place above the film that became “ American Hustle” and two above “ Argo,” and just behind “ Stoker” and the upcoming “ Triple Nine.” A film like “Margin Call” is the lifeblood of the Black List—a screenplay from a first-timer, about a fairly uncommercial subject matter: in this case, the financial crash. But thanks to its high placement, “Margin Call” got made, and repaid the voters’ faith: it was critically praised, a near-revolutionary hit on VOD, and even picked up an Oscar nomination for its screenplay.

Set at a too-big-to-fail fictional investment bank inspired by Goldman Sachs, Lehmann Bros. Et al, it follows various employees from low-level risk analysts ( Zachary Quinto and Penn Badgley) to the CEO ( Jeremy Irons) in the 24 hours or so as it becomes clear that a disastrous crash is imminent, as they try to save their own skins. Writer/director J.C. Chandor beautifully sketches out the range of characters, almost none of whom are out-and-out villains, and casts it smartly with an ensemble of talented performers who haven’t necessarily had roles to match their skills—it’s the best that Kevin Spacey, Paul Bettany and Demi Moore have been in a decade or so.

Chandor clearly immersed himself in research, because the financial tech-speak is convincingly drawn without being confusing for the layman, and he manages to make it into a gripping thriller as well as a complex human drama, while also shooting the talky film with a certain degree of flair. It might remain the most definitive film about the recent financial crash, and in Chandor, launched a serious talent (he went on to make the very different, and even better “ All Is Lost,” and has the equally promising “ A Most Violent Year” on the way).